Johannes Horner. Bluffing Beyond Poker

This paper introduces a model for blu¢ng that is relevant when bets aresunk and only actions -not valuations- determine the winner. Predictions frompoker areinvalid insuch nonzero-sumgames.Bluffng (respectively Sandbagging )occurs when a weak (respectively strong) player seeks to deceive his opponentinto thinking that he is strong (respectively weak). A player with a moderatevaluation should bluff by making a high bet and dropping out if his bluff iscalled. A player with a high valuation should vary his bets and should sometimessandbag by bidding low, to induce lower bets by his rival