Noland Marcus. Avoiding the Apocalypse. The future of two Koreas

Washington: Institute for International Economics, 2000. — 448 p.Divergent Paths
Three Crises
Prospects for the Future
Tour de Horizon
The South Korean Economy until 1997
Economic Policy in the 1960s
Economic Policy in the 1970s
Economic Policy under President Chun
The Democracy Pledge and Twenty-five Years of Development
Pre-Crisis Economic Policy, 1987 to 1997The North Korean Economy
Organization of the North Korean Economy
Statistical Comparison of the North and South Korean Economies
Crisis Response
International Economic Relations
Current ReformsThe Nuclear Confrontation
The Energy Situation
The Nuclear Program
The Agreed Framework
The Suspect Site and the Missile Test
Evaluation
The Slow-Motion Famine in the North
The Food Balance
Food for Peace
The People’s Republic of Misery
The Financial Crisis in the South
Financial Frugality
The Bubble Story
The Crisis
Post-Crisis Developments
RecoveryThe Prospect of Successful Reform in the North
Reform in the North
A General Equilibrium Perspective on Reform
The Likelihood of Reform
The Implications of North Korean Collapse
The German Experience
Relevance to Korea
A General Equilibrium Perspective on Collapse and Absorption
Conceptualizing the Costs and Benefits of Unification
Dynamic Results
Policy Lessons of the German Experience for South Korea
Thinking Beyond the German Case
Can the North Muddle Through?
Socialism in One Family
Muddling Through in Our Own Style
SustainabilityNorth Korea
South Korea
Other Actors
Final ThoughtsTables