Aronson D.R. Evidence-Based Technical Analysis. Applying the Scientific Method and Statistical Inference to Trading Signals

John Wiley, 2007. — 529 p.Evidence-Based Technical Analysis examines how you can apply the scientific method, and recently developed statistical tests, to determine the true effectiveness of technical trading signals. Throughout the book, expert David Aronson provides you with comprehensive coverage of this new methodology, which is specifically designed for evaluating the performance of rules/signals that are discovered by data mining.Part I Methodological, Psychological, Philosophical, and Statistical Foundations
Objective Rules and Their Evaluation
The Illusory Validity of Subjective Technical Analysis
The Scientific Method and Technical Analysis
Statistical Analysis
Hypothesis Tests and Confidence Intervals
Data-Mining Bias: The Fool’s Gold of Objective TA
Theories of Nonrandom Price Motion
Part II Case Study: Signal Rules for the S&P 500 Index
Case Study of Rule Data Mining for the S&P 500
Case Study Results and the Future of TAA: Proof That Detrending Is Equivalent to Benchmarking Based on Position Bias