Swaine M., Mochizuki M. China’s Military and the U.S.-Japan Alliance in 2030: A Strategic Net Assessment

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2013 -422 p.China’s growing military capabilities and presence could even weaken Japanese confidence
in America’s security commitment to Tokyo and increase support in Japan for a much larger
and offensive-oriented conventional military — and perhaps even for the acquisition of
nuclear weapons.
Thus, if Tokyo and Washington do not effectively respond to this challenge, China’s
growing offshore military capabilities could eventually increase the likelihood of serious
political-military crises in East Asia, weaken the U.S.-Japan alliance, and undermine
overall regional stability. These potential outcomes could diminish the future peace and
prosperity of the entire Asia-Pacific region. Some of these adverse outcomes are already
evident in relations between China, Japan, and the United States — the imbroglio between
Tokyo and Beijing over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea is but one
example.